Central Sahel Conflict Map 2025 – JNIM & Islamic State Activity

Between January and July 2025, the Central Sahel region experienced significant activity from two jihadist groups and their affiliates: JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) and the Islamic State (IS).

In Mali, JNIM pursues its expansion south, and westwards near Senegal’s border, where it notably conducted several coordinated attacks in early July. This is indicative of a shift of gears from JNIM’s command, who is increasing its pressure on Malian security forces. It is also a shift in methods, as the group is now openly targeting key industrial sectors, such as sugar or mining facilities, to undermine the state’s economy. The Islamic State, facing important resistance from JNIM fighters and the FAMa, struggles to expand, and is instead shifting its focus eastwards, after years of trying to push towards central Mali.

In Burkina Faso, JNIM covers large swathes of the country, pursuing its progression towards the coastal states and within Benin. The Islamic State is instead confined to the Sahel region, where it regularly clashes with JNIM fighters and the security forces.

In Niger, the Islamic State pursues its strategy of mass-violence to assert its domination, and is expanding eastwards, in Tahoua and in Dosso, where it faces less pressure from JNIM and from the governmental forces. Once a logisitical corridor, the connection with North West Nigeria is now slowly turning into a stretch of territory, which could durably create a link to the core areas of ISSP’s leadership.

Source: Jules Duhamel, based on ACLED data and analyses.