
“๐๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ก๐ถ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฝ๐
New analysis of data shows how militant networks are expanding southward from the Sahel into the borderlands of Benin, Niger, and Nigeria. Limited state presence, weak border control, and fragmented bandit and hunter groups leave space for expansion.
Forest belts offer concealment, mobility, and staging grounds, while overlapping transborder networks and a diverse ethnic mosaic provide fertile ground for recruitment. Sahelian factions like JNIM and ISSP are pushing southward, as Nigerian groupsโAnsaru, ISWAP, and Mahmudaโrelocate, form cells, and cooperate tactically.
Most operate clandestinely, with JNIM alone broadcasting its presence. Control over illicit trade routes could strengthen their holdโover time these groups may extend their reach into population centers like Gaya, Malanville, Birnin Kebbi, Sokoto, and Kaduna.”
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